This May Be Out Of Topic But May Help Us In The Long Run
Hi guys. I believe I've found myself surrounded by great personalities here on this platform and I'm grateful I joined this social forum. We have really smart and interesting people here who stand to gain a lot from these financial markets. The mistake I'd hate for us to make is not investing in something less volatile than the forex markets. We are lucky enough to make money while a lot of our dear friends who do 9-5 are losing jobs left right and centre, and stand to lose their properties if another job doesn't come up. At first I wanted to have a lot of people to admire my social media with my possessions but I'm glad I was humbled by the market before I could make a fool out of myself. Maybe bringing dignity to this industry is what we need to do. With that being said, a lot of banks are repossessing assets across the world right now. Once your monthly profit is good, you'd get really great deals right now on cars and throw them on Uber services. Houses that are repossessed below market value currently are pretty attractive, revamping and renting out or toss them on Airbnb for a couple of years before reselling wouldn't be a bad idea especially since the market will have been restored. There's auctions all over the place and art, cars, houses, heavy duty caterpillar assets are so irresistible. Let's do this guys. Have an amazing, green and easy week full of pips and money. 💰
Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important! Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent. You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better) During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets. Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
I am words on your screen. You cannot trust me. I could have edited this or literally just typed random numbers on a spreadsheet. Do your own research if you want to trust my conclusion.
Even if you trust me, you need to do backtesting for yourself. The goal of backtesting isn't simply to figure out whether a strategy has an edge: it's a way to get used to how the market flows (valuable experience you will bring on to any other strategy) and how the strategy behaves. You need to see it with your own eyes to allow your subconscious mind to be at ease when it comes time to trade it live: the only way to truly trust your strategy during a period of drawdown, is to have seen it work over hundreds of trades in the past.
Strategy I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here. As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
The first at the 23.6 retracement.
The second at the 38.2 retracement.
Both orders have a stop loss at the 78.6 retracement.
Both orders have the same target at the -100.0 extension.
If price moves to the -38.2 extension, I delete any unfilled orders.
I do not scale out, I do not move to breakeven, I place my orders and walk away.
Sample I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes. My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs. Units of measure I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that). Results I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up. Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance. List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades. For reference:
Profit Factor: 2.34
Return: 100.47 R
Strike rate: 48.28%
Average win: 2.51 R
Average loss: -1.00 R
Thoughts Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
Hello guys, First of all, if I had this idea odds are at least 100 other people have had it too so if y'all can point me in their direction and see how they have applied it, I would be thankful. I have been getting into neural networks a lot lately, and one of my first thoughts was to use them for the forex market. The main issue I ran into, however, was how to present the data to the NN. The thing most, if not all, examples I have read do is that they use an x number of previous candles + an indicator of some sort and maybe pairing it with another coin or some other variable to predict the next candle's closing price, or high, or low. After giving it a shot myself, it has been lackluster at best, and a complete failure at worst. The idea I have been thinking about was the following: use the previous x candles and indicators and other pairs and whatever not to predict the next candle, but to instead predict if at some point, any point, in the future, the price will rise by a certain amount (say 100 pips), or drop by that same amount. If we had a chart with the data for each candle (OHLC, an indicator's value, and another pair's value at that moment in time, for instance, all of which can be obtained from TradingView), and we associated with each candle a 1 if the first thing that happens at some point in the future is that it goes up by, say, 50 pips, or a 0 if the next thing that happens is that it goes down by 50 pips, then the neural network could be trained to predict based on the past if you trade on this candle, the price will go up by 50 pips in the future, in which case you enter the trade with a take-profit of 50 pips, and a SL of 50 pips, or if it will decrease by 50 pips in the future, in which case you do the opposite. That's the idea. If anyone's done it before, I would appreciate a link to their work, and if anyone thinks this is dumb, do tell me too.
Forex trader looking to start trading Crytpo as well (help with brokers and lot sizes?)
Hey there -- I'm no stranger to trading. I trade Forex and Futures. I'm also not a complete newb to cryptocurrency in general, but I am when it comes to actively trading it. To me, it just seems like Forex but with crypto and I'd really like to start building up my crypto holdings by "trading up" my account rather than solely just converting cash into crypto over time. What is confusing me a little bit is lot sizing, leverage, and the right brokers to use. I was eyeing CryptoAltum if anybody has experience with that? Although I'd prefer something I can trade with Tradingview (my preferred charting / execution platform). Aslo -- lot sizing. With Forex it's pretty simple... 1,000 = micro-lot (approx. 10 cents per pip value on majors) 10,000 = mini-lot (approx $1 per pip value on majors) 100,000 = standard lot (approx $10 per pip value on majors). But how is lot sizing determined with Crypto pairs? I'm interested in trading crypto-against-crypto (for example LTC/BTC). Is there an online calculator somewhere where I can easily determine the value per pip (or "tick"?) based on leverage and lot size? Sorry if this has been answered a bazillion times.
1.Jeremy McGilvery - InstaPro Academy. 2.Ben Oberg – Instagram Mastery 3.0. 3.Nick Malak – Own The Gram-Your Blueprint To Dominating Instagram 4.Gunnar Gronowski – Build a Drop Shipping Store using Instagram Chat-bots 5.Christien Bouc – Grow On Instagram 6.Millionaire Mafia – Instagram Mastery 2.0 (2019) 7.Instagram Mastery and Monetization – Josue Pena 8.Nathan Chan – Instagram Domination 4.0
9.Jon Penberthy – Tube Ads Academy 2019 10.Dave Kaminski – YouTube Video Ads For Regular People 11.Dan Henry – YouTube Ads for Courses 12.JAMIE TECH – YOUTUBE COURSE 13.Tom Breeze – YouTube Ad Workshop 14.Jordan Mackey – Youtube Advanced Masterclass 15.Graham Stephan – The YouTube Creator Academy 16.Kody – Youtube Mastery Class 17.Jordan Mackey – Make Money On Youtube Made Easy 2019 18.David Vlas – Youtube Compilation Machine 19.Matt Par – Make Money On YouTube without Making Videos 20.Hooman Nouri – YouTube Mastery [Download] 21.Brko Banks – Youtube Mastery [Download] 22.David Vlas – Youtube Revenue Machine [Download] 23.Brko Banks Course – How To Make Money On Youtube [Download] 24.Jordan Mackey – Youtube Advanced Masterclass 2019 – Over $50k Per Month From Youtube 25.Sean Cannell – 10X Your Brand With YouTube 26.Paul Murphy – Affiliate YouTube Success 27.BECOME A SUCCESSFUL PRODUCT REVIEWER ON YOUTUBE 28.YouTube Marketing Become a Digital TV Star in Your Niche 29.Bulletproof Youtube Ads by Adskills
TIK TOK courses
30.Rachel – The TikTok Academy
31.Jose Rosado – Twitter Money Mastery 32.Twitter SEO Academy – Bradley Benner
33.Cat Howell – Facebook Ads That Convert 3.0 34.Patrick wind – Facebook Ads Accelerator 35.Joanna Wiebe – 10x Facebook Ads 36.Anissa Holmes – Facebook Bootcamp 37.Andra Vahl – Facebook Advertising Secrets 38.Rachel Miller – Moolah’s Grow Your Audience Course (Facebook Page Strategies) 39.Chris Winters – F.A.M. Facebook Agency Machine 40.Kallzu – Facebook Agency Machine 41.Joanna Wiebe – 10x Facebook Ads 42.Ben Adkins – Facebook Ads Backpack Guide Advanced 2019 43.Wholesale Hackers – Facebook Ads for Real Estate 44.Keith Krance – Facebook Ads University Elite 2019 45.Brian Pfeiffer & Ross Minchev – FaceBook Diet Made EZ Video Course 46.iStack Training – Facebook & Ecom Mastery event Barcelona Replay 2019 47.Istack Training – Facebook & Ecom Mastery event Las Vegas Replay 2019 [Download] 48.Manuel Suarez & Ben Cummings – Facebook Masters Course 49.Peter Parks – Social Ads For FB Marketing 50.Chris Winters – F.A.M. Facebook Agency Machine 51.Freedom Junkies – Crushing Facebook Ads 52.FB Ads Machine 2.0 – Dan DaSilva, Mike Dolev
53.Parker Walbeck – Full Time Filmmaker 54.Parker Walbeck – Course Creator Pro $ (only on request) 55.Werner Herzog – Teaches Filmmaking 56.Eric Thayne – Six Figure Filmmaker 57.Hollywood Camera Work – The Master Course 58.Bimber – Viral Magazine, Video, News WordPress Theme (DOWNLOAD) 59.Christopher Perilli – The Video Authority 60.Max Rylski – Video Graphics Bonanza V2 61.Video Motion Pro | The New Way to Create Highly Profitable Videos and Info Products Quickly and Easily 62.Ryan Deiss – Script a High Converting Video Sales Letter 63.First Page Videos – Brian Dean 64.Video Series AWE18 Replay 65.Zamurai Video Immersion 66.Ben Adkins – Clients From Video 67.Video Breakthrough Academy – Clark Kegley 68.Perfect Pitch Videos 69.How to Create Video Tutorials and Perform on Camera 70.Video Ads Traffic 71.10X Your Conversion With a Video Landing Page
72.Scott Hilse – Simplified Dropshipping 3.0 73.SIMPLIFIED SHOPIFY DROPSHIPPING – SCOTT HILSE 74.ANTON KRALY – DROPSHIP LIFESTYLE 6.0 75.ANTON KRALY – DROPSHIP LIFESTYLE 5.0 76.Anton Kraly - Dropship Lifestyle 77.Biaheza's Full Dropshipping Course(for download) 78.Andrei Kreicbergs – eBay Dropshipping Coaching 2.0 79.Adam Thomas – Dropshipping Accelerator 2018 80.Hayden Bowles – Hacking Shopify Dropshipping 81.Paul Joseph – Dropshipping Titans 82.Kevin David – Shopify Dropshipping Ninja MasterClass 83.Online Auction Flipping (eBay dropshipping guide) 84.Dropshipping with Aliexpress Build and Launch your Store 85.Dream Dropshipping – Online Empire Academy(for download) 86.Advanced Dropshipping Class Till Boadella 87.Online Empire Academy – Dream Dropshipping – Value $997
EBAY and AMAZON courses
88.Beau Crabill – Full eBay Course 89.Roger & Barry – eBay Underground Sales 90.Online Auction Flipping (eBay dropshipping guide) 91.Andrei Kreicbergs – Ebay Dropshipping Coaching Course 92.Simon Charlton – eBay To Amazon Arbitrage Guide 93.eBay Powerseller academy: comprehensive in depth study 94.eBay for newbies: learn the basics to start selling on eBay 95.[Download] “The eCominomics Blueprint” – Resell on eBay/Amazon for PENNIES on the dollar 96.eBay: Make Money Flipping Cars On eBay 97.[Download] Ebay’s Quick Cash-Out 2.0 98.[Download] eBay Sellers Ultimate Bootcamp Double Your Profits 99.eBay Partner Network: Create Affiliate Home Business Fast 100.Cold Email Kings – The Exact COLD Email Sequence to Ultimately Partner with Amazon 101.Dan Meadors – The Amazon Wholesale Formula 2019 102.Michelle Barnum Smith – Amazon Messenger 103.Youngjoon Sun – Amazon FBA Mastermind 104.Matthew Gambrell – Amazon Assassin Drop Shipping Course 105.Augustas Kligys – European Amazon Summit 106.Get Seller Tradecraft – Amazon Playbook 107.Andrew Minalto – Amazon Sharks 108.Jordan Kilburn – Amazon Millionaire Mentorship Program 109.Philip A. Covington – The Ultimate Amazon Seller 110.Todd Snively, Chris Keef – Ecomm Elite Wholesale Amazon 111.Kale and Taylor – Nine University 2.0 LINKEDIN courses 112.Justin Welsh – The LinkedIn Playbook 113.Jimmy Coleman – LinkedIn Lead Challenge 114.Mike Cooch – LinkedIn Advertising Bootcamp 115.NATASHA VILASECA – LINKEDIN UNLEASHED 116.GROWING YOUR SMALL BUSINESS WITH LINKEDIN 117.LINKEDIN INCUBATOR – LIAM AUSTIN
118.Stock Options Day Trading Mindset For Success 119.Wiseguys Revealed: Modern Flow Trading 120.ABS – Reese Shapiro – Binary Option Money Making Private Method 121.CF X UNIVERSITY – CARTER FX 2.0 122.TradeSmart College – Bollinger Bands Necessities 123.WARRIOR PRO TRADING COURSE 124.MAFIA TRADING – MINDSET TRADER DAY TRADING COURSE 125.TradeSmart College – Buying and selling Plans 126.STOCK TRADING SIMPLIFIED: THE COMPLETE GUIDE FOR BEGINNERS 127.FX CARTEL TRADING COURSE 128.INVESTOPEDIA ACADEMY BY DAVID GREEN 129.GREG CAPRA – PRISTINE STOCK TRADING METHOD(for download) 130.ADVANCE STOCK TRADING (SHORT TERM, SWING AND LONG TERM) 131.The Complete Trading Course – Price Patterns, Strategies, Setups, And Execution Tactics By Corey Rosenbloom 132.Cryptocurrency Trading And Ico Investment Masterclass 2018 | Blockchain 133.ROCKY DARIUS – Crypto Trading Mastery Course 134.The Trading Boss Method 1 And 2 135.RASHAD SMITH – 7 Figures Forex Course 136.The Forex Scalper Mentorship Package(for download) 137.PIPS UNIVERSITY – The Only Forex Course You Will Ever Need(For Download) 138.URBAN FOREX – Mastering Price Action 139.ATLAS FOREX – FOREX COURSE 140.FOREVER BLUE – FOREX COURSE 141.ANGEL TRADERS FOREX STRATEGY COURSE 142.MAKE MONEY WORK FROM HOME ONLINE TRADE FOREX 4 BEGINNERS 143.JASON STAPLETON – TRADERS WORKSHOP FOREX FULL COURSE 144.FOREX TRADING FOR NEWBIES 145.CRYPTO TRADING MASTERY COURSE
146.Jared Goetz – Ecom Hacks Academy 2020 147.Marvin Hospes – eCom Success 3.0 148.Sarah Chrisp – Ecomm Clubhouse 149.Deepwork Labs – eCommerce Accelerator 150.Tony Folly – eCommerce Masterclass-How To Build An Online Business 2019 151.Vince Wang & Jordan Welch – eCom Accelerators Private Mastermind Replays 152.Gabriel St. Germain – eCom Blueprint 2.0 153.Ricky Hayes – Ecom Lifestyle University 154.Rafael Cintron – 7 Figure Ecommerce Inner Circle 155.iStack Traning – Ecommerce Mastery live Asia Thailand 2019 156.Tai Lopez – ECOM Agency 157.Ecom Titans – Keys To Consistency 158.Gabriel Beltran – The Ecom Millionaire Mastermind, Miami 159.Bill Dalessandro – Ecommerce: Product To Profit 160.Matt Gartner – eCom Lab 161.Arie Scherson – Ecom Inner Circle 162.Matt Gartner – 8 Hour eCommerce Profits 163.Justin Cener – eCommerce Bootcamp Mentor Program 164.Anthony Mastellone – eCom Success Lab 165.Earnest Epps – High Ticket eCom Secrets 166.Jon Mac – Ecommerce Accelerator 167.Seth Smith – Advanced Ecommerce Academy 168.Chris Blair – eCom Vantage
169.CXL Institute – 10 Courses Marketing Bundle 170.Matt Serwin – Klaviyo Email Marketing Masterclass 171.Million Dollar Marketing Methods – 2020 SEO 172.Fred Joyal – Marketing Course for Dental Marketing 173.Justin Jackson – Marketing For Developers 174.Brian Bewer – Madcam Marketing 2.0 175.Tiz Gambacorta – Amik Affiliate Marketing Intensive Kickstarter 176.Matt Cramer & Shayne Hillier – Real Estate Marketing Student Beta Program v2.0 177.Sean Vosler – 7 Figure Marketing Copy 178.Russ Henneberry – Content Marketing Mastery Course 2019 179.Ted McGrath – Marketing Masters Map 180.Jon Penberthy – Legit Marketing Academy 2019 181.ConversionXL, Dan McGaw – Optimizing Your Marketing Tech Stack 182.Brandon Belcher – CPA Marketing University 183.Jeremy Haynes – Digital Marketing Manuscript 2.0 + DSP 184.Mohamed Ali Aguel – Momentum Marketing Tribe 185.Jordan Steen -The Digital Marketing School 186.James Jason – Mortgage Marketing Mastery 187.Digital Marketing Nanodegree v3 188.Sean Terry – Marketing Mastery X 189.Simon Colhoun – Affiliate Marketing & List Building Video Course 190.Saj P & Jeevan S – Zero Resistance Marketing 191.Simplilearn – Digital Marketing Certification Training 192.Billy Gene’s Gene Pool | billy gene is marketing 193.Stefan James – Affiliate Marketing Mastery 194.Jaiden Gross – 30-Day Affiliate Marketing Challenge Training ADVERTISING/ ADS courses 195.Harmon Bothers – Write Ads That Sell 196.Dental Clients – Proven Tested Ads and Funnel 2019 197.Traffic and Funnels – Advertising Workshop 198.Eugene M. Schwartz – Breakthrough Advertising 199.Kody – Advanced Bing Ads Training 200.Mike Harri – Pinterest Ads Masterclass 201.Ross Minchev – Pin Ads Jumpstart 202.Patrick Wind – Ads Accelerator Program 203.Adskills – Search And Destroy Bootcamp 204.Duston McGroarty – Push Notification Ads Masterclass 205.Epic Mail Machine – $100K Deals With No Paid Ads 206.Tristan Broughton – Google Ads Ecom Academy 207.Google Ads Mastery 2019-2020 208.Justin Sardi – Video Ads Masterclass
209.Josh Braun – Sales DNA 210.Dan Kennedy – Ultimate Sales Letter 2.0 211.Jim Huffman – The ClickMinded Sales Funnel Course 212.Building Sales Funnels for Backend Profits 213.GKIC – The No B.S. Renegade Guide To Putting Together A Highly Effective Sales Team
214.Joel Kaplan – SMMA 7 Figure Agency 215.Quenten Chad & Jovan Stojanovic – 30 Days SMMA 216.Nick Kenens – Cold Emails for SMMA
217.Jim Edwards – Copywriting Secrets 218.Kyle – The Process A Draft By Draft Copywriting Walkthrough 219.Kim Krause Schwalm – Ultimate KKS Bundle (Copywriting) 220.Ray Edwards – Copywriting Academy 2 221.Shortcut Copywriting Secrets 222.Paul Hollingshead – AWAI’s Accelerated Program for Six-Figure Copywriting 223.Pam Foster – Direct Response Copywriting Course 224.Writing Tools & Hacks Copywriting/Blogging/Content Writing (Download) 225.AWAI – The Web Copywriter’s Clear Path to Profits
226.Sarah Titus – Best Blogging Bundle 227.Ahrefs Academy – Blogging for business 228.WordPress Blogging How To Start A WordPress Blog 229.Blogging to Generate Leads: Business Blogging Essentials CONSULTING courses 230.IMQueen – 1 Hour Consulting 231.Alex Becker – Hero Consulting Accelerator 232.Joe Soto – Local Consulting Academy Update last 233.Sabri Suby – Consulting Empire 234.John Shea – The SEO Consulting Blueprint (DOWNLOAD) 235.John Logar – Consulting Rocket 236.Sam Ovens – The Consulting Blueprint Complete
237.Elizetxe – Agency Blueprint 238.Sebastian Robeck and Bryan Ostemiller – Agency Hyper Growth 239.Michael Laurens – Agency Accelerator 240.Mariah Miller – Agency Takeoff 241.Jeff Miller – The Agency Scaling Secrets Trainings And Masterclasses 242.Natasha Takahashi – The Chatbot Agency Accelerator 243.Alex Brittingham – Agency Growth Hack 244.Jason Wardrop – The 6 Figure Agency Blueprint 245.Jeff Millers – Agency Scaling Secret 246.Bob Mangat – 7 Figure Agency Update-1 247.Joseph Davis – Underground Agency Playbook 248.Joseph Davis – Digital Agency Masterclass 249.Get Chris Record – Digital Agency Builders 2019 250.Brian Willie – Maps Liftoff Agency 251.Robb Quinn – Agency in a Box
252.Ben Settle – Email Players List Swell 253.Mike Shreeve – Email Academy 254.Alex Berman – Email 10k 255.Ezra Firestone – Smart Email Marketing 2.0 256.Matt Bacak – Email Marketing Specialist 257.HOW TO SEND UNLIMITED EMAILS STEP BY STEP 258.Ben Adkins – Cold Email Clients 259.Email Prospecting Blitz 260.Justin Cener – 97 Done For You Email Templates
261.Max Tornow – Freedom Business Mentoring 262.Caity Hunt – Home Business Freedom Formula 263.John Whiting – Business Growth for Entrepreneurs 264.Josh Hall – Web Design Business Course 265.Andre Chaperon – Lean Business For Creators 266.Katie Yeakle – Secrets of Writing High-Performance Business-to-Business Copy 267.Beau Crabill – Credit Cards for Business
268.Tai Lopez – Home Sharing Management Company 269.Ezra Firestone – Traffic MBA – Smart Project Management ORATORY, CHARISMA, PERSUASION, FOCUS and MIND courses 270.Charlie Houpert – Charisma University 271.Jason Capital – The DOMINANCE 272.Jim Kwik – Unleash Your Brain 273.Vanessa Van Edwards – People School Science of People 274.Ramit Sethi – How To Talk To Anybody (Complete) 275.Magnetic Influence – Dani Johnson 276.Lazy Consultant System – Mitch Miller 277.Professional Speakers Academy – Andy Harrington 278.Unlimited Persuasion Power 279.Creating Fame Complete – Laura Roeder 280.[Download] HypnoRitual 281.Conversion XL – Digital Psychology and Persuasion Minidegree 282.Fascinate Your 7 Triggers to Persuasion and Captivation – Sally Hogshead 283.Persuasion IQ The 10 Skills You Need To Get Exactly What You Want 284.Power of Persuasion – Eben Pagan 285.Unlimited Persuasion Power 286.Course Builder’s Laboratory – Danny Iny 287.Bob Proctor – Magic In Your Mind 288.Mind Body Eating Online Conference BOTS courses 289.Steve Larsen – ChatBots For MLM 290.Brian Anderson – Quantum Chat Bots 291.Nick Moreno – Messenger Bots For Entrepreneurs 292.Scott Oldford and Katya Sarmiento – Bots for Business 293.Bastian Ernst – Funnel Bots Pro OTHER COURSES 294.Asian Efficiency – Finisher’s Fastlane 295.Colin Dijs – December Mastermind 2019 296.The Lending Lead Gen Academy 297.Stu McLaren – Tribe 2019 298.Yuping Want – Sourcing Warrior Mastermind 299.Carl Allen – Dealmaker Wealth Society 300.Nick Torson & Max Sylvestre – Quit 9 To 5 Academy 301.Bob Diamond – The Overages Blueprint 2019 302.Get Aidan Booth and Steven Clayton – Parallel Profits 303.Harlan Kilstein – Sneaker Riches 304.Tony Robbins, Dean Graziosi – The Knowledge Broker Blueprint 305.Mitch Harper – 60 Day Startup 306.RSD max - The Natural 307.Guru Siphon Formula – 6 modules & 143 videos 308.Andre Chaperon – Lean Business For Creators 309.Todd Brown – Borrowed Best Seller JASON CAPITAL courses 310.Instagram Agent System 311.Conversation God 2019 312.Email Income Experta 313.Sales god 314.High Income Weekly Skills Training 315.Status Unleashed (bonus) 316.THE JASON CAPITAL COPYWRITING CERTIFICATION PROGRAM TAI LOPEZ courses 317.Tai Lopez - SMMA 2.0 318.Tai Lopez - Cashflow System 319.Tai Lopez - Digital Social Marketing Consultant 320.TAI LOPEZ – PRIVATE MENTOR CONFERENCE 2018 321.TAI LOPEZ –ENTREPRENEURS STARTER KIT DAN LOK courses 322.DAN LOK – HIGH TICKET CLOSER 323.Dan Lok – Instagram Secret 2019 324.DAN LOK – PERFECT CLOSING SCRIPT 325.DAN LOK – TUBE YOUR OWN HORN 326.DAN LOK – 6 STEPS TO 6 FIGURES
IMAN GADZHI courses
327.IMAN GADZHI – AGENCY INCUBATOR 328.IMAN GADZHI – SIX FIGURE SMMA 329.IMAN GADZHI – INFLUENCER IGNITED 2.0 330.IMAN GADZHI – KAIZEN CURE 331.IMAN GADZHI – PEN TO PROFIT MEMBERSHIP If you need proof of the courses, just let me know and if you are looking for another course that is not on the list, we will just let you know and we will give you a good price. We have more than 1000 courses available. Write us [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
What is the best budget to start trading forex pairs?
Usually trading cryptocurrency is an easy thing for me since I've been doing this for years now. Fiat pairs in the other side have this thing called pips and they usually move 10's pips from time to time which is not how crypto value moves. I'm planning to start with around 750$ and making small trades until I learn how to properly trade forex pairs. Let me know of any tips related to forex trading.
So I've been starting trading forex about a week ago and so far seem to be profitable. I already have experience trading stocks and options as well as gambling with binaries back when they were still legal in europe. My strategy so far is to just long EUUSD and respectively short USD/CHF as there are literally no good news comming from the states and the trend shows. Decision for these 2 pairs is based upon the fact that I'm most informed on the euro coming from europe myself and the CHF has always been a very stable and strong currency, so most of the movement in USD/CHF should be from the USD. So I basically go in long on the EUUSD (short USD/CHF), especially when its dipping, and open up 3-5 positions hroughout a day all with .01 lots. I then let it rest until im satisfied with the profits or I think it will turn. Stop loss at 40 pips. Reason for the multiple positions a day being cost average effect which seems to work very well with long term stonks. Now the real question: Would it make sense to hold positions for longer than lets say, a week? Or would the swap/commission consume most of the profit? Because as of right now I don't really see the USD rising in value anytime soon. So in theory I would open up positions, whenever there seems to be a good entry point and hold it for a few months until there are good news coming from the states.
I’m looking to start trading forex and have been running trial accounts for the last few months just to make sure I can consistently turn my initial investment into a decent profit. I’ve no desire to make money quick and fully expect it to be a long process of interments gains (and losses). I think I’m nearly ready to take the step to using a real deposit - my only concern is that my initial investment is only planned to be about £150 - I know generally a bigger investment is safer but I’m not keen to risk too big a slice of my monthly income having never traded with real capital. With this in mind, calculating stop losses at 1/2% is difficult as a pair can move £1/2 in a matter of pips so I’ve either got to be 100% sure that a trade is going in the right direction immediately, or risk stop lossing preemptively to protect a few percent. Can anyone offer any advice as to how to run risk management strategies on a low value account?
To identify the maximum risk size of trade, you should find the distance between your stop loss and your entry. Therefore, you should determine the pips and the lot of size to calculate the ultimate risk in the dollar value. Risk per trade in currency value helps the trader to stay consistent with the maximum tolerable losses. To Calculate the Position Size in Forex, you need to know: How much money you have invested in your trading account Percentage of your investment you are willing to risk The distance of the entry price and the stop loss of your trade Pip value per a standard lot of a currency pair. #forexsignals#stockmarket#forexlifestyle#forexsignal#profits#forexprofit
Again within 24 hours of trying to work out a way to make this sustainable and workable for everyone I've noticed it's not worth the hassle to do so. It seems a lot of you expect everything for nothing. I'm afraid that is not going to work for me. Nothing I am doing is free for me, and if people do not want to pitch in the tiniest bit to help with that I can only conclude one of two things; 1 - The info is not worth $50 to you. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. 2 - People are ungrateful. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. If people were willing to meet me half way, I'd have went a lot further. People seem to want to stand where they are and shout over to me I'm a scammer for not bringing it all to their feet. That's a perspective. You can have it. I do not mind. But if this is your talk, I'll trade in silence. I'll also show you what happens with the "Scammy" info I was going to provide you for $50. In the week ahead I'll set up an account with a similar amount to the amount of money people seem to think it's egregious to ask for, and I'll run the same trades on this as will be in the trading plans shared in the proposed offer. I'll use recognised results tracking programs that will automatically verify and display the results. Build up phase: I'll start with currency trades. These are the lowest barrier to entry since I can trade micro lots and also have access to leverage. Currency trades should give me about 400 'pips' margin of error. Realistically, I should not need more than 40. I think SPX will be up 2 - 4% next week, this should give gains to on the Aussie against the Swiss (AUDCHF) - I'll go long AUDCHF. Margin up phase: After the currency trades I should have enough to trade SPX. I'll start to position short on SPX around 3080 and I'll take a first target of 2377. Given the right setups I'll add to my SPX short as prices are falling to bulk up the net take profit on the trade if it works. I'll trail my stops on the first trades to mke sure I'm not increasing my risk . Big up phase: By this time I should have enough margin to trade the Dow. Here I can make some real money. Around 21,000 I'll start to short the Dow and I'll be targeting 10,000. This trade should pay me somewhere in the region of $50,000 per traded lot. During the move I should be able to build up a position of at least 4 - 5 lots on the margin I have. Should be over $200,000 if it hits. Cash flow up phase: Once the drop has happened, I will begin to go long and do it in ways that will generate me daily income. I'll do this by transferring about $100K into options account and selling puts for 100 SPY. I'll also switch back to currency trades and I'll engage in what are known as "Carry trades", these will pay me every day I hold the trade based upon the "Swap". The best carry trades will depend upon what respective interest rates are at the time. Assuming things are similar (relatively) to how they currently are, I will be buying the Aussie, Kiwi and Turkish currencies and I'll be selling them against the dollar and Yen. This will be long AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and short USDTRY. I'll allocate $50,000 to carry trades. I'll use the remaining money to hedge and offset risks/losses on my cash flow trades if that is needed, and if not I will use it to make similar trades but ones based upon a short time frame and geared towards risk:reward based profit rather than passive cash flow. I'll keep doing this until the Dow is back to around 17,000 - 18,000. Crash cash phase: For the next phase of the drop I will again switch to trading the Dow. This is where I can make most money. I might also allocate $100 - 200K to OTM puts, but since this can be a slower more steady crash it will make more sense to build a position in the CFD market on the Dow. Again my Dow trade should pay over $50,000 per lot. This time building up over 20 lots should be fairly easy. Cash flow decade phase: Once the market has crashed I will start to become a big options seller. i'll also engage in carry trades if interest rates are not all screwed up (Which is there are 'currency wars' they could be). Being able to be on the right side of a carry trade will determine if this is viable or not - and that has some variables that can not be known at this time. I'd love to be able to just short USDTRY, though. If it's viable. With options, I will be selling both put options and call options. I think once the crash has happened we will enter into a long term theta market last 10 - 15 years - this period is known as a 'Lost decade)'. I'll sell SPY puts for under the lows and I'll also sell SPY calls each time there is jumps in upside volatility. I'll be happy to sell SPY calls for 200 for literally years on end. By this time I should have more than $50. I'll update my swing plans either bi-weekly, weekly or monthly. Pending on how much free time I have. I'll edit this post to add in the results tracking material when I set it up. Update: Here's the tracking link. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/2020sBeasomething-for-nothing/6040046 I set the copy software to invert trades & the first trades went short AUDCHF rather than long. That puts me on quite a substantial losing start, but it should not matter. Might push the start of SPX trades back a week. Probably won't. Let me just show the value of what I've been trying to teach you.
Forex Trading: a Beginner's Guide The forex market is the world's largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker - but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world's largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume. However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be 'strong' against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUUSD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this - the toxic debt crisis. Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:
Enormous liquidity - over $4 trillion per day, that's $4,000,000,000. This means that there's always someone ready to trade with you
Every one of the world's free currencies are traded - this means that you may trade the currency you want at any time
Twenty four - hour trading during the 5-day working week
Operations are global which mean that you can trade with any part of the world at any time
From the point of view of the smaller trader there's lots of benefits too, such as:
A rapidly-changing market - that's one which is always changing and offering the chance to make money
Very well developed mechanisms for controlling risk
Ability to go long or short - this means that you can make money either in rising or falling markets
Leverage trading - meaning that you can benefit from large-volume trading while having a relatively-low capital base
Lots of options for zero-commission trading
How the forex Market Works As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair - say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUUSD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the 'forex rate' means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUUSD = 1.4086 or EUUSD = 1.4087 but never EUUSD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a 'pip'. So, a change from EUUSD = 1.4086 to EUUSD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade. With the forex rate at EUUSD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUUSD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn't seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend. When you're expecting the value EUUSD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage. Is forex Risky? When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you're in the business of currency speculation and it is just that - speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you - and it will on occasions. The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you're doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there's bits you don't understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don't be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned! The forex Trading Systems While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that's advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table. How Much do you Need to Start off with? This is a bit of a 'How long is a piece of string?' question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard "lot". However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There's many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading. Where do You Start? The single most obvious answer is of course - on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there's lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there's no reason why you shouldn't be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!
Website that calculates difference between two values in a currency pair (to calculate distance of stop loss from entry in pips)?
I use the Babypips trade size calculator and I need to input my stop loss as pips each time as a variable. I want to switch to MT4 but it doesn’t automatically show you how many pips your stop loss is when you enter a value in whereas Oanda’s app does. Is there any website to quickly calculate how many pips a certain drop in price is for Forex?
All right, I've read multiple guides/sites/forum posts on this topic, and I'm still flummoxed. So I ask you, Forex reddit: How do you read the ATR indicator? For example: I'm looking at a pair with an ATR(20) of 1.2889. I want to use the ATR*1.5 method to set my stop loss. Of those five digits, which do I actually multiply to get the SL? The answer seems simple enough for pairs with an ATR of something like 0.0045; that's just 45 pips. But I'm lost when it comes to values bigger than that, because I can't imagine a trade with a SL of, say, 4333 pips (to use my ATR(20) example), especially if I'm scaling out and intend to enter three positions. I realize this is the most absolute of absolute rookie questions, but in all my months of doing this I've never been able to figure it out. I appreciate your help!
Hard. Following up on my post about trading economic news, here are some hard numbers about news releases. If you can't be bothered to read any further, just know that a high S value means there is money to be made by trading the release of that economic metric. I collected historical data (consensus and actual) for each of these economic metrics from January 2018 to the present. These are mostly monthly metrics; one is quarterly, one is biweekly, and one is weekly. I did this manually from an economic news aggregation website because I'm too cheap to pay for exported data. I also noted whether each release was the primary (or only) news being released at that precise moment or whether there were other important economic metrics being released at the same time. Then I wrote software to fetch 2 minutes of USD/JPY price data (in 5 second candles) starting at the time of each release and correlated each candle to the "surprise" in the metric (the difference between the consensus and the actual). That produced data for each metric that looks like this and give you an idea how reliably the news predicts the short-term price move. Next the software went back through the price history and measured the "coordinated movement" of the currency pair during each candle. By that I mean it measured the size of each candle in pips and then set the sign to be positive if its moving in the same direction as the first candle or negative otherwise, and averaged all those numbers together. These charts look like this and give you an idea how dramatically the price moves in response to the news. Then, for each candle, the absolute value of the correlation is multiplied against the coordinated movement, creating a "tradeability" score. The idea is that a strong (positive or negative) correlation and a strong coordinated movement yields a high score, and either a weak correlation or a small price movement yields a low score. These charts look like this. Finally, for each news release I measured the maximum value of the correlation (R) and the maximum value of the tradeability score (S). Since I don't have access to anything with finer granularity than 5 seconds, it's no surprise that candle 0 had the maximum correlation and maximum tradeability for each metric. I did this process twice for every metric: first over all releases and second over only those releases that were the primary or only release happening at that moment. I kept the results from the one that returned the better net maximum tradeability score. The net maximum tradeability score is just the product of the maximum tradeability score and the number of releases being considered, either all of them or some smaller number. (This helps avoid bias in the results for metrics that are often released at the same time as other metrics.) In the results linked at the top of this post, the metrics are ordered by decreasing maximum tradeability score (S) with maximum correlation (R) also shown. Remember, R = +1 means perfect positive linear correlation, R = -1 means perfect negative linear correlation, and R = 0 means no correlation. S values less than 3 are essentially untradeable due to the spread. A couple notes:
Non Farms Payroll, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, is the most tradeable by far. Although not shown here, the correlation is even higher (0.8xx) if you omit those releases that occur simultaneously as other news, but because of the strong correlation and high pip movement it's better overall to consider all NFP releases.
Retail Sales is tradeable, but Personal Income and Personal Spending is not. This was a surprise to me, I haven't traded any of these metrics before. I'll have to look into what is exactly in each one to understand why this is.
With the exception of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, all of these releases are correlated with the price movement, but many of them aren't practical to trade because the movement is too small.
The negative sign and weak correlation on Inflation Rate MoM is a bug, I think. I got a different (positive) number when I ran it earlier, but then I was on a conference call while reformatting the data and I may have done something dumb. I'll go back and review it.
It takes me about 15 minutes to scrape 2 years of monthly data by hand and type it up, and then the software takes about 10 seconds to run per metric. If there are regular forecasted economic releases that you'd like to see correlated and scored, let me know! I can do other currency pairs and other country's economic news as well, it's just a matter of data collection.
WE TRANSFORM NOVICES INTO PIP-SEEKING, IN-THE-KNOW, FOREX TRADERS
Alphaex Capital gives you the tools and resources for you to get to the next level from an average (losing) forex trader, and become heightened with your own skills as a forex trader to manage your own money and trade your way.
WHO WE ARE?
Alphaex is a combination of Alpha (above market returns) and Apex (highest point of achievement/apex predator) as this aligns with our business outcomes in providing phenomenal forex education to the masses in order achieve a collective greater success in the markets. We provide professional trading education for free with additional “bolt-ons” at a small price. The free trading courses do not require the bolt-ons to go through or complete the courses, but instead they significantly reduce the time to study and create a successful framework for your future. Our traders have been through the Financial Conduct Authority accredited exams that are required to practice investing at a professional level and are registered holders of a Chartered Institute of Investments and Securities accreditations. We are the pioneers in actionable, learn and earn, trader education through our Masterclasses. We have seen so many ineffective trading courses for the masses and we have seen the same internet marketing strategies and outcomes used every time.
Our goal is to provide a service that is unmatched by no one. We strive to ensure that all of our services and content exceed our client’s expectations whilst providing tremendous value. We want to build a community of capable traders/investors that are like-minded and willing to provide support and nurture new and upcoming traders. We want to rip apart the forex “get rich quick” and “make easy money online” sales pitches and obliterate the blurred lines between a real, actionable, trading courses. You can learn more about us on our website: https://www.alphaexcapital.com/
In foreign exchange (forex) trading, pip value can be a confusing topic.A pip is a unit of measurement for currency movement and is the fourth decimal place in most currency pairs. For example, if the EUR/USD moves from 1.1015 to 1.1016, that's a one pip movement. Most brokers provide fractional pip pricing, so you'll also see a fifth decimal place such as in 1.10165, where the 5 is equal to ... The pip value is defined by the pair of currency, trade value, and the rate of exchange of the currency pair. Currency must be exchanged to enable international transactions. There are a lot of bets and other transactions happening in the forex market. Calculating the pip value for this forex lot size is easy because we already know it is €0.27 or $0.30. 3 micro lots x $0.10 (which is the value of a pip for one micro lot) = $0.30 per pip After clicking buy or sell, a €3,000 deal would be executed where the potential exists to profit or lose €0.27 or $0.30 per pip. Calculate pip value in different Forex pairs pip and pipette concept. In foreign exchange (forex) trading, the value of pips may be a confusing issue. A pip is a unit of measurement for Forex movement and is the fourth decimal place in most currency pairs. For example, if the EUR / USD measures 1.0261 to 1.0262 in the pip value table, it is a ... the definition of the pip, which is not always the same depending on the pair selected (e.g. the pip for the EUR/USD = 0.0001, the pip for the EUR/JPY = 0.001) The exact formula is the following: z pip XXX/YYY =z* S * dPIP expressed in currency YYY Where . z = number of pips as a gain or loss ; S = size of the contract = no. of units of pair ...
How to calculate Pip Value Forex Trading 6 Short Info ...
Download your Pip Value Calculator here...: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/pip-value-calculator/ 👇 SUBSCRIBE TO RAYNER'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW 👇 https://www... This video is just a demonstration of how you're going to calculate pip value and convert them easily to your account's currency. To learn more about pips we... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. This video will explain in detail THE SIMPLE WAY to convert Lot Sizes, how Risk vs. Reward works, and also how to count Pips. These are the fundamentals of t... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C...